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Jul 31, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

July 31, 2013

Jul 31, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI OZARKS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS INDICATE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS…SUBTROPICAL RIDGING…CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION…APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND ONCE AGAIN…WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID/UPPER HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER…THESE COULD BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW…AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…BY WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CENTER.

…CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI OZARKS…
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL ZONE MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY…AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ABOVE A CORRIDOR OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75 TO 2+ INCHES/ AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. INCREASING INHIBITION AND GENERAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE COULD BE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. HOWEVER…IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE OR MORE IMPULSES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MAY AID LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM INITIATION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. IN THE PRESENCE OF A CONTINUING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET…THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS. AND THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGER STORM CLUSTERS WITH A BROADER SCALE SEVERE WIND THREAT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE.

…NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS…
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST CAPE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ON FRIDAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR…THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS. AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING REMNANT LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM CONSOLIDATION INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

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