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Mesoscale Discussion 2067

December 6, 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 2067

mcd2067

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST FRI DEC 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…WRN TN AND NRN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY…EXTREME SRN IL…SRN IND…SRN AND CNTRL OH AND WRN THROUGH NCNTRL PA

CONCERNING…WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 062102Z – 070030Z

SUMMARY…BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH RATES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN FROM PARTS OF WRN TN INTO SCNTRL AND CNTRL KY.

DISCUSSION…THIS AFTERNOON AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WINTER PRECIPITATION PERSISTS FROM WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL AND SRN KY…PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW ACROSS MOST THE OH VALLEY. THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY IS COUPLED WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF A POLAR JET LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THESE FEATURES IS AUGMENTING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO EARLY EVENING RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. MOREOVER…FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYERS WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -2 TO -8 C BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE…WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE EFFICIENCY OF SNOWFLAKE GROWTH.

FARTHER SOUTH…STRONG SWLY FLOW BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL MAINTAIN A NOSE OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SUBZERO LAYER…RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF FREEZING RAIN FROM PARTS OF WRN TN INTO SRN AND CNTRL KY INTO EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION RATES IN THIS ZONE WILL BE AUGMENTED AT TIMES WITHIN RAPIDLY MOVING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

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