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Dec 21, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

December 20, 2013

Dec 21, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

VALID 210100Z – 211200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN AR TO CNTRL TX…

…CNTRL TX TO THE MID-SOUTH…
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN MO SWWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOW ITS SWD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/SONORA BORDER SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS THE TX BIG BEND. THIS WILL YIELD STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD TO THE MID-SOUTH. 00Z SHV RAOB ALREADY SAMPLED A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AMIDST A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS…WITH THE LATTER ENLARGING OVERNIGHT. A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY MATERIALIZE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE PERIOD. REF MCD 2090 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION.

FARTHER SW…PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY OF TX YIELDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY 12Z/SAT. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT GIVEN ANAFRONTAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND PRONOUNCED CAPPING EVIDENT IN 00Z DRT/CRP RAOBS. NEVERTHELESS…THE STRONGLY-FORCED ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE INVERSION WITH WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-12Z. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK…VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

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