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Dec 22, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

December 21, 2013

Dec 22, 2013 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

VALID 220100Z – 221200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN MS…NWRN AL…WRN/MIDDLE TN…WRN/CNTRL KY…FAR SRN IND…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY…

…CNTRL GULF COAST TO OH VALLEY…
WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CNTRL OH S/SWWD TO SWRN LA. TWO DISTINCT SURFACE CYCLONES HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY…ONE ALONG THE KY/SWRN IND BORDER AND THE OTHER NEAR THE AR/TN BORDER. THE MOST INTENSE LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE QLCS WERE LOCATED INVOF THESE CYCLONES AND WILL LIKELY POSE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE. THE NRN CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER OK PROGRESSES NEWD TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS…THESE LEWP/BOWS WILL LIKELY RACE NEWD TOWARDS THE TN AND CNTRL OH VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER 00Z JAN/BNA/BMX RAOBS…PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES WITH NRN EXTENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE QLCS ACROSS THE CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST…THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OWING TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. BUT WITH THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS…CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/QLCS MAY MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHING E/NEWD OVERNIGHT WITH MORE ISOLATED RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

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