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Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586

December 21, 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586

ww0586_radar

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Low Very Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2″+ Hail
Very Low Very Low

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM UNTIL 300 AM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF CINCINNATI OHIO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 583WW 584WW 585

DISCUSSION…WELL-FORMED QLCS WITH AN EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER…WHILE OTHER CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH NEWD EXTENT AND EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR…DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO
RIPLEY SWITZERLAND

. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BATH BOONE
BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN
CAMPBELL CARROLL CLARK
ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING
FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD
GRANT HARRISON JACKSON
JESSAMINE KENTON LARUE
LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON
MARION MASON MENIFEE
MERCER MONTGOMERY NELSON
NICHOLAS OWEN PENDLETON
POWELL PULASKI ROBERTSON
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN SCOTT
SHELBY SPENCER WASHINGTON
WAYNE WOODFORD

. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BROWN BUTLER
CLARK CLERMONT CLINTON
FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN
GREENE HAMILTON HIGHLAND
HOCKING LICKING MADISON
MONTGOMERY PICKAWAY PIKE
ROSS SCIOTO WARREN

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Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Low (<5%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (60%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

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