Skip to content

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 17, 2014

February 17, 2014

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 17, 2014

day48prob

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VALID 201200Z – 251200Z

…DISCUSSION…
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD…WITH THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 /THU. 2-20/. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS…A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION…WHILE ALLOWING A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.

WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR…EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON — FROM SRN IL/ERN MO SSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION…IN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM…IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EWD. IN ADDITION…A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE — MAINLY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO ADVANCE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN PRIOR RUNS…SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /FRI. 2-21/. WHILE THE STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. — WELL REMOVED FROM THE GREATER MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL FARTHER S — THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD…APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 5 OVER THE CONUS.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: