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Feb 19, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

February 19, 2014

Feb 19, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

VALID 201200Z – 211200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS…AND THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST…

…SYNOPSIS…
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…AND THEN ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS/UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

AT THE SURFACE…A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD FROM THE SERN KS VICINITY TO LK SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…WHILE A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD — CROSSING THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

…OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS ACROSS TN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH…
SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY DAY 2 — PRIMARILY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY — AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED/POWERFUL UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN CONUS.

STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD WILL SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION /GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ ALONG THE FRONT…LEADING TO EVENTUAL INITIATION/EXPANSION OF A FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE AFTERNOON…A NEARLY SOLID/FAST-MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF COASTAL REGION — ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION…GIVEN WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY/SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE…A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE — PARTICULARLY WITHIN A ZONE IN THE MID OH/TN VALLEY VICINITY. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE HAIL RISK HOWEVER…PARTICULARLY N OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

OVERNIGHT…STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED/SEVERE AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY EWD TOWARD/INTO THE APPALACHIANS — AFTER WHICH SOME DISRUPTION OF OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK MAY OCCUR.

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