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Feb 21, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

February 20, 2014

Feb 21, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

VALID 210100Z – 211200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN/AL/MS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES…

…OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO GULF COAST STATES…
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT…WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND THE IMMEDIATE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INCLUDING PARTS OF MS/AL. STEADY DEEPENING OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST…WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY…A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY…PERIODIC WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY…WITH A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING BUT LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH…A COMPLEX/MIXED-MODE OF MULTI-BANDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MODESTLY MOIST ZONE OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM JAN/BMK AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BNA INDICATE A GENERAL EROSION OF THE PRIOR MID-LEVEL CAP WITHIN THE MODESTLY MOIST WARM SECTOR. SOME ADDITIONAL QUASI-LINEAR CONSOLIDATION/ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO AT LEAST GLANCING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES OF MESOSCALE COLD POOL EVOLUTIONS…WITH ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER INFLUENCES…DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD SOMEWHAT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS /MID INTO LATE EVENING/ FROM PARTS OF MS/AL INTO MIDDLE TN AND KY…WITH SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. REFERENCE SPC WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

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