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Mesoscale Discussion 131

February 20, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 131

mcd0131

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…ERN HALF OF IND…WRN/CENTRAL KY…WRN OH

CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 14…

VALID 210219Z – 210345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 14 AND IN COUNTIES N/NE OF THE NRN WW BOUNDARY. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS NRN IND AND WRN OH.

DISCUSSION…A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S/SE FROM A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SRN WI ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF IND/KY AT 02Z…WHILE AN EAST-WEST WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NRN IND AND OH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD…SUPPORTED BY 7 TO 8 MB/2 HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE MODEST BUOYANCY…STG/SVR TSTMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE NEWD AT 45-50 KTS AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS WW 14…AIDED BY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEWD-LIFTING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT…MULTIPLE LINES OF SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS…SOME SIGNIFICANT…WITH EMBEDDED QLCS/MESOVORTEX LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TSTMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW 14 AND JUST TO THE NORTH…IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT…WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO WRN OH TO THE EAST OF WW 14. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS NRN IND AND WRN OH.

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