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Mesoscale Discussion 134

February 21, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 134

mcd0134

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…MUCH OF OH…NRN-NERN KY AND PARTS OF WRN WV

CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18

VALID 210438Z – 210545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 18 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY…A SVR WEATHER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF WW 18 BY 05Z…WITH A NEW WW NEEDING TO BE COORDINATED SOON TO THE EAST ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN OH AND SWD INTO NERN KY TO PARTS OF WRN WV.

DISCUSSION…A FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS…CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN OH INTO NRN KY /INVOF THE CINCINNATI METRO AREA/…IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ENEWD AT AROUND 50 KT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED NWD INTO THE SRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY INTO SRN OH. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STRONG MS VALLEY TROUGH HAVE RESULTED IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY…THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR TSTMS WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS OH AND NERN KY TO WRN WV. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST SOME DIMINISHING TREND IN EXTENT OF COVERAGE…DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. SFC-1 KM SHEAR CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TORNADO THREAT…MAINLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.

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