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Feb 28, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

February 28, 2014

Feb 28, 2014 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS…LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…WESTERN MISSISSIPPI…

…SYNOPSIS…
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WHILE DE-AMPLIFYING IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ASCENT PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOURAGE THE ENEWD PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL WAVE FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE ARKLATEX TO THE TN VALLEY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND S OF THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. E OF THE DRYLINE…A LLJ WILL ENCOURAGE THE NWD TRANSPORT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY — ORIGINATING FROM A RESERVOIR OF 1.5-1.8-INCH PW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PER GPS DATA.

…ERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EWD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…
ISOLATED STORMS…PERHAPS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL…MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN OK AND NRN TX AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD DOME. MEANWHILE…THE INFLUX OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS E OF THE DRYLINE BENEATH AN EML PLUME EMANATING FROM THE NRN MEXICAN PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO E-CNTRL TX BY MID-DAY. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY…SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING ACCOMPANYING THE EML PLUME — I.E. FROM THE ARKLATEX TO NERN/E-CNTRL TX — BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUN NIGHT…WHILE THE SEWD ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PINCHES OFF MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL WAVE AND EXTENDS THE SVR POTENTIAL TO THE COAST.

STRONG DEEP SHEAR OWING TO 50-70 KT OF H5 WSWLY/S WILL ASSIST STORM ORGANIZATION…WITH INITIALLY MIXED SUPERCELL/QLCS MODES OVER ERN TX TRANSITIONING TO MORE LINEAR MODES FARTHER E. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…AND SVR HAIL JUST AFTER SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION…WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM ERN TX TO NRN/CNTRL LA…WHERE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH 40-55 KT OF SWLY H85-H7 FLOW WILL EXIST AND ALSO YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS THE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ENEWD AND AWAY FROM RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WHILE WEAKENING SUN NIGHT…THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY.

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