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Mar 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 10, 2014

Mar 10, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 111200Z – 121200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…

SPLIT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED SWD ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS CO/KS/MO. ONE SOURCE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS SRN UT/CO EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING INTO MO WELL AFTER DARK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SFC WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SWRN MO AROUND 12/00Z.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 7 C/KM. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN ALLOWING SFC DEW POINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ACROSS SERN MO. ONE CONCERN REGARDING THIS MOISTURE SURGE IS THE NEGATING INFLUENCE OF LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GOM. THIS FEATURE MAY IMPEDE LOW LEVEL MOIST TRAJECTORIES SOMEWHAT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. IF HOWEVER THE NAM IS CORRECT IN ALLOWING MID 50S DEW POINTS TO ADVANCE INTO CNTRL MO ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 23Z ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT A CAP-FREE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 700 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERED SOMEWHAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE OPTED NOT TO INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER…A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO IL IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

…CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST…

NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE KICKED EWD ACROSS THE GULF TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO NEAR THE FL COAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WHILE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING SFC FRONT OVER THE GOM…DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WHEREAS FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE FL BIG BEND REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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