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Mar 10, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 10, 2014

Mar 10, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 111200Z – 121200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SYNOPSIS…
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN CA WILL PROGRESS EWD AND COVER THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN EARLY D2/TUE. ON D2/TUE…A HIGHER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS FROM THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHEAR THE WRN-CONUS IMPULSE EWD — THE ERN EXTENT OF WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES/PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY BEFORE PHASING WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A FRONT FROM N-CNTRL KS TO ERN OH…WHICH WILL BE REINFORCED BY ABUNDANT COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKING THE GREAT LAKES REGION…MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY…AND PLAINS.

…MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION…
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER/TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /E.G. PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ AND RELATIVELY HIGHER BUOYANCY WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO…OF WHICH ABUNDANT GULF CONVECTION WILL PROCESS. HOWEVER…SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED TO THE S/SE OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE INFLUX OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE…WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION DURING PEAK HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW. DURING THE AFTERNOON…DIABATIC SFC HEATING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 0-3-KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY…WHILE MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING OCCUR. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL/DEEPER ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE EVENING…WHEN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING IMPULSE APPROACHES SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY…AND A REINFORCING COLD SURGE OVERTAKES A TROUGH TRAILING SSW OF THE SFC LOW. IN RESPONSE…SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE MERGING SFC FEATURES IN CNTRL/ERN MO TUE EVE BEFORE SPREADING EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT…WHILE A SWLY LLJ INCREASES TO 40-50 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.

WITH H5 WSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO 45-55 KT THROUGH THE EVENING ABOVE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ…LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ORGANIZED — PERHAPS AS A LINE IN PROXIMITY TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. STRONG SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISES SUCCEEDING THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ SUGGEST SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION…DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE.

…CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AND VICINITY…
ABUNDANT CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF WATERS. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE THE COAST AND VICINITY FROM SRN LA TO THE FL BIG BEND. HOWEVER…AS THIS CONVECTION LARGELY PROCESSES HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E S OF THE COAST…ANY INLAND CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY DCVA AND MODEST WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING THE TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED AND LIKELY SUB-SEVERE.

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