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Mar 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

March 11, 2014

Mar 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111200Z – 121200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…MID MS VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A 60 TO 75 MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC…A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS ERN KS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE EXTENDING EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. THE MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW FROM NW MO INTO SRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM CNTRL INTO SRN MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SWD ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE TUESDAY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WEDNESDAY IN CNTRL AND NRN MO SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NCNTRL MO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID-LEVELS AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 C TO -18 C COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW EXTENDING EWD INTO SCNTRL IL JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN FAR NRN MO…SRN IA AND NCNTRL IL…THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.

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