Skip to content

Mar 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 11, 2014

Mar 11, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 121200Z – 131200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…MIDDLE ATLANTIC…

INTENSE 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS…IN EXCESS OF 200 M…WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER GFS/ECMWF REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/DEEPENING OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PA AFTER 18Z. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOWER-MID 50S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD INTO PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AT DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY…PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN PA…SWD INTO VA. ADDITIONALLY…SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG/NORTH OF DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD AHEAD OF STRONG PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR-SFC BASED UPDRAFTS ACROSS SWRN PA/NRN WV. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES WWD TOWARD DEEPENING SFC LOW WHERE UPDRAFTS HAVE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ROOTING INTO BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN 50KT+ FLOW NEAR 900MB COULD MIX TO THE SFC WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION PRIMARILY DUE TO FORECAST WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER…HIGHER SEVERE PROBS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR A STRONGLY FORCED FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: