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Mar 11, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

March 11, 2014

Mar 11, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 111630Z – 121200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS…
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER CO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM KS INTO SOUTHERN IND BY 12Z WED. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTH RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM…DRAWING 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS MO/IL. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO AS THE PRIMARY UPPER FORCING IMPINGES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. CAPE VALUES WILL BE WEAK…BUT RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS THREAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IL INTO IN/KY OVERNIGHT…WHERE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL HELP OFFSET MEAGER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE MOST INTENSE CELLS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

…GULF COAST REGION…
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF THE UPPER TX GULF COAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE…AFFECTING PARTS OF LA/MS. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN AND DESTABILIZATION INLAND. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE MS DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEAST LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON…NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

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From → Weather Blog

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