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Mar 12, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

March 11, 2014

Mar 12, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 120100Z – 121200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY…
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A VORTICITY MAX EVIDENT OVER CNTRL KS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE SFC…A 996 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD MO WITH A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS CNTRL MO. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 60 TO 70 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 C TO -18 C…A HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP BUT THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND STORMS MAY BE ROOTED NEAR THE SFC. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AFFECT AREAS AS FAR EAST AND NCNTRL KY…SERN IND AND FAR SW OH.

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