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Mar 19, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

March 19, 2014

Mar 19, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2014

VALID 191200Z – 201200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SYNOPSIS…
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY…WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE PHASING OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION…WITH A NEGATIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE…A POLAR JET STREAK/MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA AND THE FAR NORTHWEST CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT.

…MIDWEST…
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT…ASCENT TIED TO DPVA/WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE UP TO A COUPLED HUNDRED J/KG THROUGH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS…PARTICULARLY ACROSS INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO OH THIS MORNING.

…NORTHEAST STATES…
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION…THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS EVENING AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN/SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF SCANT MUCAPE /LESS THAN 100 J PER KG/…BUT THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK UPDATES.

…WA/NORTHERN ID…
TIED TO THE SYNOPSIS HIGHLIGHTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK…SUFFICIENT FORCING MAY COINCIDE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/VERY WEAK INSTABILITY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. WHILE THE SCENARIO SEEMS MARGINAL OVERALL /AROUND 10 PERCENT/…ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN WA/FAR NORTHERN ID.

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