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Mar 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 26, 2014

Mar 26, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU…

…SYNOPSIS…
SHORTER WAVELENGTH IMPULSES…COMPRISING LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING NOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST…APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INLAND…WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY…ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS…AND INTENSE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 70 KT ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…BUT THE SURFACE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT ALSO STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL TEND TO OCCUR BEFORE A SEASONABLY MOIST RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LIKELY WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DOES APPEAR TO EXIST FOR WEAK TO MODEST WARM SECTOR MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION…WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

…LWR CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU…
STRONGER FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY BEGIN OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER NOON THURSDAY…AS SURFACE DEW POINTS STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S. WHILE THIS GENERALLY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT…STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY COMPENSATE.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE FRONTAL FORCING EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTES TO UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY…DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY…AS NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS…AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ARKLATEX. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS…WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION…BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

…WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION…
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH…BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY…ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS. GIVEN ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF…AND GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS…BOTH DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT…AND PERHAPS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF ANY DEVELOPING STORM CLUSTER.

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