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Mar 26, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

March 26, 2014

Mar 26, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

VALID 281200Z – 291200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES…

…SYNOPSIS…
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT BUT WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE…ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS…THE BELT OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD ALSO SHIFT OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY…AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME…THOUGH…A SEASONABLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL CONTINUE ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY STALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS…IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THESE FEATURES IS POSSIBLE…AS UPSTREAM FLOW AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

…OZARK PLATEAU/TN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT GULF STATES…
ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ESPECIALLY HIGH FOR THE TIME OF YEAR…STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH A SEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. BUT…WITH THE ONSET OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION…STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY THE EVENING HOURS…IF NOT BEFORE…ACROSS ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY…BUT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY A 40-50+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED MAXIMUM…WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

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From → Weather Blog

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