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Mar 26, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 26, 2014

Mar 26, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2014

VALID 271200Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO THE ARKLATEX…

…MO TO ARKLATEX…

SRN CA MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THEN EJECT NEWD INTO SWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE 500MB FLOW SHOULD EXCEED 70KT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR NORTH OF I-40 AT PEAK HEATING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE…LEE CYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TO A POSITION OVER FAR NW MO AT 18Z. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING…ROUGHLY 100 MI WIDE…SHOULD AID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS SERN KS INTO WRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTENSE HEATING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD FORCE A WELL DEFINED DRY LINE EAST OF I-35 PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS OK.

LATEST THINKING IS MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE NWD ATOP MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS…MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. 26/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER 50S SFC DEW POINTS COULD EXTEND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS WILL BECOME FREELY BUOYANT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S…LIKELY BY 20Z TIME FRAME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/HEATING…INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT THEN SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO ERN OK. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WILL FORM WITHIN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S. WHILE MUCAPE MAY NOT EXCEED 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE ACTIVITY FROM SWRN MO SWD TO THE RED RIVER. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF SIG SEVERE ALONG THE DRY LINE TO INCLUDE THIS ENHANCED RISK. SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MS RIVER.

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