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Mar 28, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

March 27, 2014

Mar 28, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

VALID 280100Z – 281200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OZARK PLATEAU TO THE MID MS VALLEY…

…OZARK PLATEAU TO THE MID MS VALLEY…
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE A DRYLINE FROM NERN TO CNTRL MO…ALONG WHICH A BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD. CONVECTION MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BUILD SWD INTO FAR ERN OK AND NRN AR ALONG THE MERGED BOUNDARY AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CROSSING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING. COMPARISON OF SGF 18Z RAOB TO SGF 00Z RAOB INDICATES SFC WINDS HAVING VEERED IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR…WITH A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. REGARDLESS…LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM E-CNTRL MO TO SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR. LEADING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE SHORT-TERM…AS THEY OUTPACE THE NARROW SECTOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE BAND OF STORMS.

AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A PRECEDING STRONG LLJ SUPPORTS PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR E AS CNTRL INDIANA…ENHANCED BY CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. HOWEVER…LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM SHOULD TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

…FAR NERN TX…
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS AUGMENTING DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS TO HAVE RECENTLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM ERN GRAYSON TO COLLIN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU TRAIL SWWD INTO THE DENTON AREA…AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND SHIFT EWD. WITH 50-70 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE FWD SOUNDING…DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL SVR WIND…HAIL…AND TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO RICHER MOISTURE/MORE UNSTABLE AIR E OF THE DRYLINE. WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT BEING ONLY MODEST IN NATURE…STORM/SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

…LOWER MS VALLEY…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A REGIME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A LLJ COVERING THE MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT E THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z JAN AND SHV RAOBS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH SPORADIC MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. WHILE MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO REMAIN ROOTED ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER…A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MARINE TRAJECTORIES COULD SUPPORT EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXTENDING TOWARD THE SFC THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS SUCH…SPORADIC DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS SRN MS AND POINTS S.

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