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Mar 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 31, 2014

Mar 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NRN OK INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO…

…SYNOPSIS…

TUESDAY…SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS IN WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING SSEWD INTO CA. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NRN TX AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN TX WILL LIFT NWD INTO SRN OK DURING THE DAY…WHILE A DRYLINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM SWRN THROUGH NWRN TX WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE WARM FRONT.

…NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK…

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS SRN OK BY EVENING. MEANWHILE…PLUME OF WARM AIR AT BASE OF THE EML WILL ADVECT NEWD ABOVE THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR…PROMOTED BY SWLY WINDS ALOFT AND WILL SERVE TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOST OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN TX OR EXTREME SWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD ALSO INITIATE SOME DISTANCE DOWN THE DRYLINE AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY. SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP…STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER…ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

…NRN OK THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS…

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE MUCAPE FROM OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AOA 40 KT AND A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

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From → Weather Blog

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