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Mar 31, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

March 31, 2014

Mar 31, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST…THOUGH SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH CA BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY…REACHING THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST LIKELY EXTEND FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NEWD THROUGH MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS IS TYPICAL…THE SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND PREFER THE MORE SWD PLACEMENT…ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT ATTENDING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX.

…OK THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN KS…

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE OK AND TX WARM SECTOR. WARMER AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION MUCH OF THE DAY. ZONE OF DEEP MIXING AND POSSIBLE DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 700 MB FLOW. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DRYLINE BULGE AND THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP…VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY IN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS /SHOULD THEY DEVELOP/ WOULD PROBABLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN OK INTO KS. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

…LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION…

WAMER TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT…BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT…SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS.

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