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Mar 31, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

March 31, 2014

Mar 31, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN OK AND NWRN TX…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN/CNTRL MO…

…SYNOPSIS…

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING SWLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM AN OCCLUDING GREAT LAKES LOW SWWD INTO THE OK-TX RED RIVER VALLEY WILL STALL BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING POLEWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED ON TUESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM THE INTERSECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER W-CNTRL OR SWRN OK SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

…WRN OK INTO NWRN TX TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING…

THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE BACKING AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR…ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER 60S. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP…YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE 850-700-MB LAYER DURING THE DAY…EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING THE CAP ACROSS THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIVE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT…SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER NWRN TX IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURRING IN THE POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD…THE MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

…CNTRL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY TUE NIGHT…

THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF A SLY LLJ WILL PROMOTE A BROAD ZONE OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT…AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE EML WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH…THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

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