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Apr 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 1, 2014

Apr 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 011200Z – 021200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX…

…SYNOPSIS…
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE…A LARGER AND LOWER-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH JET MAX NOSING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH…WITH THE TRAILING FRONT RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS AR…OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F TO SPREAD NWD…WITH 62-64 F DEWPOINTS INTO NRN OK BY WED MORNING.

STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX…WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT…SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A 50-KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH LIFT FOCUSED OVER ERN KS AND MO…WITH SCATTERED STORMS…SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

…NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK…
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF THE DRYLINE…WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F RETURNING NWWD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BROADLY INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEPARTS…AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NWRN TX. THEREFORE…WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED…WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS…THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE FOR A LINE OF TCU TO FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN/RETREATING DRYLINE…WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AS THIS AIR MIXES INTO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN ISSUE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE LACK OF PROLONGED FORCING AND LIKELY MIXING OF THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FURTHER DURING THE EVENING…CAPPING WILL EXIST…THUS STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

…ERN KS INTO WRN MO…
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO…BUT THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL BE NON-SEVERE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…STRONGER LIFT AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR…WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN KS AND MOVING INTO WRN MO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE FROM MANHATTAN KS TO COLUMBIA MO.

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