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Apr 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 1, 2014

Apr 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS…

…SYNOPSIS…

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE SSEWD THROUGH CA BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY AND EMERGING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST LIKELY EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH NRN OK INTO SRN/ERN KS…SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A MODEST DISTANCE NWD DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK AND MIX EWD. NRN END OF THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN OK OR SCNTRL KS.

…OK THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN KS…

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE OK AND TX WARM SECTOR. WARMER AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION MUCH OF THE DAY. ZONE OF DEEP MIXING AND POSSIBLE DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN OK WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 700 MB FLOW. INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL OK WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE…BUT ALSO MORE CAPPED. GIVEN ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF CAP IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR…THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY WITH SWD DISTANCE INTO TX.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP…VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY IN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM ERN KS INTO MO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREAT…BUT ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

…LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION…

WARMER TEMPERATURES AT EML BASE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT…BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE…ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT…SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS WHICH COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE WARMER EML IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

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