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Apr 1, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

April 1, 2014

Apr 1, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 031200Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY…WRN TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN…LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL OR NRN MO AND THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

…ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS…WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS…

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE ON A POSITIVE TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WHICH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM AR INTO SRN AND CNTRL MO. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER JET STREAK ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ANY STORMS INITIATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES…ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS…TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

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