Skip to content

Apr 1, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 1, 2014

Apr 1, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED THRU WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE S CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION…

…SYNOPSIS…
A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. WITHIN THIS REGIME…THE REMNANTS OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW /NOW DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST/ APPEAR LIKELY TO TURN EASTWARD/EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE… MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION…IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN IMPULSE…A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT…THE SLOWING WESTERN FLANK IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL…BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…BUT ONLY MODEST LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW QUICKLY /AND HOW FAR NORTH/ THE COLD CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A CONTINUING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF A MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FINALLY ADVECT SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BENEATH RESIDUALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR…THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CAPE…AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

…S CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU…
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME… ABOVE THE COLD SURFACE BASED AIR…ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY LINGER WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE…MID-LEVEL CAPPING BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGING PROBABLY WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR…MORE LIKELY…EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING DRY LINE…ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE POSITIONED.

REGARDLESS…IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT…AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT…POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BASED LARGELY ON THE ECMWF AND NAM…THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: