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Apr 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 021200Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK/N TX EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…
A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT PRECEDING IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE…UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING E OF THE MS RIVER AS THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH MOVES INTO QUEBEC. IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN NRN JET…AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO AFFECT TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE…A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST WED MORNING ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK…WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN KS INTO MO N OF THE WARM FRONT.

LATER IN THE DAY…SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NWWD INTO SERN CO. MID 60S F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE NWD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NWRN OK INTO ERN KS BY 00Z. A DRYLINE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK WITH TRIPLE POINT AROUND NWRN OK AT 00Z.

HEATING AND MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR…AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND BACKS. THIS WILL CREATE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.

…SRN KS INTO OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY…
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG WILL MATERIALIZE S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FARTHER W…THE DRYLINE WILL TEND TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR BACK SLIGHTLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAPPING WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY…BUT CIN WILL BE ERODED IN A NARROW ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK AND TO THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN OK. DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER…SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DRYLINE STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NWRN OK AND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN/SERN KS DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

…AR DURING THE DAY…
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MIDDAY ACROSS AR AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD WITH A 40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AS WELL AS COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL BE A BIT CONDITIONAL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LFC NEAR 700 MB.

…ERN KS…ERN OK…MO…AR OVERNIGHT…
HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN OK OR SRN KS. HERE…LIFTING OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE PERSISTENT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS LATE…HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SE INTO MO AND AR…THE BROAD WARM SECTOR AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

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