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Apr 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 031200Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY…

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS.

…SYNOPSIS…

MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING…AMPLITUDE AND GENERAL CHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN…LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

…ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY…

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF ERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER…IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARM SECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHER NORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER…AND VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO…ERN OK AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE…AND SOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

…OH VALLEY REGION…

MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY…PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE…THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

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