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Apr 2, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 2, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

day3prob

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS…

…SYNOPSIS…

VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND SERN STATES…REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

…PORTION OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS…

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE OH…TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS EARLY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT PRE-CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOIST AXIS TO EVENTUALLY BE PINCHED OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY…WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEPER FORCING GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PRESENT OVER THE SERN STATES. THIS SUGGESTS GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.

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