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Apr 2, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 2, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 021630Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND NORTH TX…EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY…

…OK/KS…
A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR TODAY…WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS AND RATHER WIDESPREAD CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK…INTERSECTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS LATER TODAY. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z OPERATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES…STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR…AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND INTO NORTH TX IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. HOWEVER…CONDITIONAL RISK REMAINS IN THIS ZONE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST.

…AR/MS/TN/SERN MO/WRN KY…
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AR…IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHEAST MO DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS REGION…THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION WHETHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE OVERDONE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. BUT NEVERTHELESS…FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 00Z SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OUTLOOK AREA TO INCLUDE MORE OF THIS REGION IN CASE THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

…E CENTRAL MO/SOUTHERN IL…
A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING IN THE STL VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS…TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

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