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Apr 2, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 2, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 031200Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN MO…AR…SRN IL…FAR WRN KY…WRN TN…NW MS AND FAR NRN LA…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY…TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY…

…REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SRN MO AND AR INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEY…

…SYNOPSIS…

FORECAST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PLAINS TROUGH BECOMING NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SFC LOW OVER SE KS THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD NRN MO BY EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO SRN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. DURING THE MORNING…A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN OK/TX AND WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY…EVENTUALLY OVERTAKING A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN OK/TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE…A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND QUICKLY TRACK NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LARGE MOIST/WARM SECTOR ENCOMPASSING THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TOWARD THE WRN OH/TN VALLEY.

…ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY…

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH MAY BE A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS…BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. A LARGE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOME EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY…BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE N AND E AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN FOR LATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. BY AFTERNOON…STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C/KM ATOP SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROGGED NEAR 1500-2500 J/KG. AS THE CAP ERODES WITH SFC HEATING…IT IS POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE MO/ERN AR AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS INITIALLY. HOWEVER…THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FURTHER WEST FROM SW/S-CNTRL MO INTO NW/N-CNTRL AR JUST AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. AS THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS EWD…LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WILL THE TORNADO THREAT. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LONG STORMS WILL REMAIN DISCRETE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY EWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EWD…BUT AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS AROUND 00Z FOR DISCRETE CELLS. THEREAFTER…UPWARD GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE QLCSS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS SE MO/ERN AR TOWARD THE WRN OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE EVENING…ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

…OH VALLEY…

WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN WARM/MOIST ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE DAY…LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES…STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE DEVELOPING QLCS FURTHER TO THE W OVER MO/AR WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT…ACCOMPANIED BY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

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