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Apr 3, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 2, 2014

Apr 3, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 030100Z – 031200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY…

…CNTRL/E KS INTO CNTRL/S MO…
ALONG AND N OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR S-CNTRL/SE KS INTO S MO…TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS AMIDST STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MODERATE-LARGE WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY PER 00Z RAOBS. THIS TREND SHOULD YIELD A PREDOMINANTLY CLUSTER-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE BY LATE EVENING. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR CONTINUED SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AS RICH MOIST ADVECTION SLOWS THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. OTHERWISE…INITIAL LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ RISKS WITH SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MIXED HAIL/WIND RISKS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS SERN KS INTO SRN MO. SEVERE HAIL RISK FROM PURELY ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY WANE WITH WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH NRN EXTENT.

…ARKLATEX TO MID-MS VALLEY…
A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AMIDST STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS MAY FOSTER RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN BOTH COVERAGE AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION GIVEN WAA ALSO OCCURRING THROUGH 700 MB WHERE A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WAS SAMPLED IN 00Z SHV RAOB. NEVERTHELESS…STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RENDERS CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. A PREDOMINANT CLUSTER-TYPE MODE OWING TO CONVECTION LARGELY BEING FORCED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY HELP MITIGATE THE RISK…BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT /DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY HAIL/.

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