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Apr 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 3, 2014

Apr 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031200Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR AR…CNTRL/S MO…S IL…W KY/TN…NW MS…FAR N LA…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COAST…

…SWATHS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT…

…SYNOPSIS…
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRI. A SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSE EVIDENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PRECEDE THIS TROUGH AND SHOULD RACE NEWD TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE FORMER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD…CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES. ATTENDANT W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST…BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY ABUNDANT CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER W…A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO S-CNTRL TX….BEING PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKEN FROM THE N BY A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E/S THU NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY TO WRN GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI.

…MIDWEST TO WRN GULF COAST…
A MESSY/COMPLEX SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION APPEARING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR…ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. TWO DISTINCT 700 MB JETS ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD IMPULSE AND THE MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION…AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY. THESE FEATURES RENDER LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT AT PEAK HEATING INTO TONIGHT…ESPECIALLY WITH ERN/NRN EXTENT ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS. RELATIVELY LARGE DISAGREEMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 00Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS…A LARGE WARM/MOIST SECTOR…EXTENSIVE PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…AND STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED MODERATE RISK ARE PREMATURE ATTM.

GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EXISTS INVOF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. HERE…PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. AMIDST LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS…STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. AS CONVERGENCE/WIND FIELDS NEAR THE MERGING FRONT/DRYLINE STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING…UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH RISK TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL INTENSITY WITH ERN EXTENT SHOULD BE MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

FARTHER S INTO ERN TX…MORE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR TO SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY…PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD AID IN A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMING THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN INITIAL SUPERCELLS AS WELL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE MCS MAY YIELD A PREDOMINANT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.

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