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Apr 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 3, 2014

Apr 3, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES…

…SYNOPSIS…

NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND SERN STATES…REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.

…PORTION OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH TN AND OH VALLEYS…

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE OH…TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS EARLY FRIDAY. SUFFICIENT PRE-CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS FOR A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD DURING THE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOIST AXIS TO EVENTUALLY BE PINCHED OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY…WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND DEEPER FORCING GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PRESENT OVER THE SERN STATES. NET RESULT IS THAT GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND.

…CAROLINAS…

STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR BENEATH A REMNANT EML PLUME. THESE PROCESSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER…INITIAL SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS NWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CAP SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SOMEWHAT SPARSE. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP…THEY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES FOR A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HAVE EXPANDED THE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA A BIT FARTHER EAST…BUT IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON…THEN SLIGHT RISK MIGHT NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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From → Weather Blog

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