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Apr 3, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 3, 2014

Apr 3, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…TN VALLEY…CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER MS VALLEY…

…UPPER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC…A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT…A LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM ERN IND SSWWD INTO WCNTRL KY. MORNING DESTABILIZATION…A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND 30 TO 40 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LINE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE LINE REACHING THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY AFTERNOON.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NEAR AKRON OH SSWWD TO JACKSON KY SHOW SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S F BY MIDDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD…THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 900 MB SHOULD MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE THE LESSER OF THE TWO. FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WRN PA…WV AND WRN VA…THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHOULD MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT MORE ISOLATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

…CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS LINE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 18Z FOR TUSCALOOSA AL SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN ADDITION…HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO NRN AND WRN GA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORM COVERAGE DECREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

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