Skip to content

Apr 3, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 3, 2014

Apr 3, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

day1probotlk_torn

day1probotlk_wind

day1probotlk_hail

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 032000Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MO…AR…SRN IL…WRN KY…WRN TN…NW MS AND NRN LA…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY…OZARKS…SRN PLAINS…OH AND TN VALLEYS…

…POTENTIAL FOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY…

A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OUT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THIS MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON…SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL AND SSWWD ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SE KS AND NERN OK WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES…MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM FAR ERN OK EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND AR.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WSR-88D VWPS AT SPRINGFIELD MO…LITTLE ROCK AR AND FORTH SMITH AR SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 250 TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL JET IN THE SRN PLAINS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON…LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND THAT MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. AT THIS POINT…THE MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SWD TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK AND EWD TO NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MO AND MEMPHIS TN.

FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES…SEVERAL FACTORS MUST COME TOGETHER. THE FIRST IS THAT MANY DISCRETE CELLS WOULD NEED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET PASSES BY. A COUPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT HOW MANY DISCRETE STORMS THERE WILL BE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD IMPACT THE EVENT IS THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. ALSO…THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR THESE REASONS…WILL KEEP THE OUTLOOK AT UPPER-END MODERATE RISK MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR A OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

IN ADDITION…A COUPLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK. THE 15 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NW AR. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX WHERE TORNADO WATCH 52 IS LOCATED. ALSO EXPANDED THE THUNDER AREA WWD INTO PARTS OF WEST TX WHERE HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE INITIATED.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: