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Apr 4, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 3, 2014

Apr 4, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 040100Z – 041200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO MUCH OF CNTRL/E TX…

..MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO TX…
BROKEN BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS EXISTS FROM E-CNTRL MO SWWD TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. MOST INTENSE/PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN RELEGATED TO INVOF DFW METROPLEX AND THE INTERSECTION OF THE BAND/LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INVOF STL.

THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /INFERRED FROM MODIFIED 00Z CRP RAOB/ WILL LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS TX WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS…WHERE THE DRYLINE HAS STRUGGLED TO PUSH EWD THUS FAR. REGENERATIVE SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT…A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD AND SHOULD AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF LINGERING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NE…LOWER MEAN MIXING RATIOS AND MODERATE MLCIN SAMPLED BY 00Z LZK/JAN HAVE MITIGATED WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER…INCIPIENT WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR INVOF THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS WHERE GREATER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR RESIDUAL LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. WITH THE LLJ STRENGTHENING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR…THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A FEW TORNADOES THIS EVENING.

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