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Apr 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 4, 2014

Apr 4, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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day1probotlk_wind

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

VALID 041200Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MS/AL…

…SYNOPSIS…
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY SAT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER FAR SE IA SHOULD REACH LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT WILL HAVE A SLOWER SEWD PROGRESSION IN THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST.

…CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MS/AL..
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS PREVALENT FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO TEXARKANA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z WITHIN A SWATH OF 50S/60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. BUT CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY OUTPACE THE PLUME OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY W OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION…LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SUBSIDE WITH SRN EXTENT AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD. THUS…MCS/S SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE DURING THE LATE MORNING…BUT WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY WHERE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING OCCUR…ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A MODEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY/LIFT MAY POSE A SEPARATE /LARGELY MARGINAL/ SEVERE RISK.

…UPPER OH VALLEY TO LAKE ERIE…
LARGE MCS OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD ALONG A LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW REMNANT FROM EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ON THU. N OF THIS MCS…DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SLOWED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR OVERTURNING. ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS…IF POCKETS OF AFTERNOON HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…MEAGER BUOYANCY MAY AID IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…LOW/DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH A RISK OF A TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

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From → Weather Blog

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