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Apr 4, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 4, 2014

Apr 4, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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day1probotlk_wind

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

VALID 041300Z – 051200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/OH VLY…

…SYNOPSIS…
POTENT MID/UPR MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE TO UPR MI LATER TODAY AND TO THE ONT-QUE BORDER EARLY SAT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX NOW OVER MO MOVING NE INTO IL/IND. FARTHER S…SEASONABLY STRONG…SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC SUB-TROPICAL JET SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY N ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LWR LVLS…OCCLUDED SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS MI AND LK HURON…WHILE A TRIPLE POINT WAVE EVOLVES IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE LATTER LOW SHOULD MOVE NE TO CAPE COD BY 12Z SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN.

…CNTRL GULF CST STATES TO OH VLY TODAY…
SQLN NOW ARCING FROM ERN KY/ERN TN SWWD INTO LA IS LARGELY PRE-FRONTAL. EXCEPT OVER LA AND MS…THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OUT-RUN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE GULF CST STATES WILL BE NEUTRAL AT BEST AS MID MS VLY TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE MAY…HOWEVER…PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTN IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING SUB-TROPICAL JET.

STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES…AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THE SQLN GUST FRONT AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG…LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW MAY FOSTER A FEW STORMS/EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND OR SVR HAIL…ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PARTS OF LA AND MS TODAY. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD…HOWEVER…GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MEAN WINDS SUBSIDE AND DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES REGION.

…CNTRL APPALACHIANS/UPR OH VLY TODAY…
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SE KY/FAR ERN TN SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY…SUPPORTED BY 50-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ROUNDING SE FLANK OF MS VLY UPR TROUGH. WHILE LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS NOTABLY DRIED COMPARED TO REGION UPSTREAM THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRAVERSED OVERNIGHT…MODERATE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF WV AND VA LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD…SETUP MAY CONTINUE TO FOSTER A FEW EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

FARTHER N…POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SPORADIC DMGG GUST OR TWO OVER NRN OH…IND…AND LWR MI…DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH.

…S TX THIS MORNING…
WDLY SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER DEEP S TX…WHERE RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT…SLIGHTLY UPSLOPE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE FOSTERED BY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /DEEP EML/…AND POSSIBLY BY ENHANCED VENTILATION INVOF STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS UNDERCUTTING BY COOL/DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR CAUSES STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

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