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Mesoscale Discussion 277

April 4, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 277

mcd0277

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO…SOUTHEAST INDIANA…CENTRAL KENTUCKY…MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 040639Z – 040915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AREAS E/NE OF TORNADO WATCH 55 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SVR TSTM POTENTIAL…WHICH COULD WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION…A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SRN INDIANA TO NWRN TN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AND PERHAPS DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WATER VAPOR DATA IMPLY THAT POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA LIE WELL UPSTREAM — EXTENDING FROM IA TO ERN OK. MEANWHILE…OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SFC THETA-E IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH…ESPECIALLY N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW/ESE ACROSS CNTRL KY THAT WAS DEPOSITED BY EARLIER CONVECTION DURING THE PAST DAY AND IS BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER…AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE APPROACHING THE ONGOING CONVECTION…AND A VWP-IMPLIED 40-60-KT LLJ SUPPORTS STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES…THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE — ESPECIALLY S OF THE LEXINGTON-LOUISVILLE CORRIDOR. AND…WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW…CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS E/NE. CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT COULD FOSTER A DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH BOWING SEGMENTS…WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BREED SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITH TORNADOES. THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY…HOWEVER…MAY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

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