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Apr 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 6, 2014

Apr 6, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

VALID 071200Z – 081200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL…NRN FL…MUCH OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS…

…SYNOPSIS…
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES…TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENING NEWD TOWARD LOWER MI. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERN STATES WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NWD ACROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH SWD FROM A LOW OVER OH ACROSS ERN KY AND TN SWD ACROSS GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE AT 00Z. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT…A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM S CNTRL VA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND INTO NRN GA BY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE…THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ALOFT WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS…WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25 C HELPING TO CREATE SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY FOR A FEW WEAK DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX. VERY SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS KS…OK AND NRN TX.

…SERN AL…GA…NRN FL…SC AND NC…
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET…FAVORABLY ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND AN INFLUX OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT AN ONGOING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO GA DURING THE DAY…AND THEN EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING…PERHAPS INTO SRN VA…FORCED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND FOCUSING ALONG THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT.

UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION WILL PRECLUDE GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME…BUT A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBS COULD BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE PREDICTABILITY INCREASES…ACROSS AL AND GA.

…NRN MIDDLE TN…KY…SWRN OH…
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING AS HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE LOW-TOPPED…COLD PROFILES ALOFT AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR HAIL. SMALL SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL ALSO FAVOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

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