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Apr 6, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 6, 2014

Apr 6, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014

VALID 071200Z – 081200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS….

…ERN GULF COAST STATES…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC…A DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS…CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT…SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD…MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE IN FAR SE LA AND SRN MS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY APPROACH 70 F IN A FEW LOCATIONS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE DUE TO A 75 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN FAR SE LA…SRN MS AND SRN AL. IN SPITE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION…THE AREA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL AND SRN GA BY AFTERNOON. THE 21Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT MONTGOMERY AL SHOWS A SFC DEWPOINT OF 65 F…SBCAPE OF 1000 J/KG…0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 KT WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO THREAT WITH CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN NC SWWD ACROSS SC…GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AHEAD OF THE LINE. AT THIS POINT…WILL NOT ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOUR DUE TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION.

…OH VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD FROM WRN KY INTO OH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST OF THE LOW EXTENDING SWD ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MID-DAY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LEXINGTON KY WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S F WITH SBCAPE AROUND 800 J/KG. IN ADDITION…STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -15 C. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HEAT UP THE MOST. A FEW OF THE CELLS COULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

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