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Apr 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 7, 2014

Apr 7, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

VALID 071200Z – 081200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH NRN FL/GA TO THE CAROLINAS…SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA…

…SYNOPSIS…
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTING EWD FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND SHOULD UNDERGO SOME SHARPENING AS A PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING SPEED MAXES SHIFT ESEWD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. MEANWHILE…A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS REGION AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…PHASING WITH A WEAKER TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE PHASED TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. AT 12Z TODAY…AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN WRN TN WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH MS TO SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN LA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD…REACHING CENTRAL OH BY 08/00Z AND THEN THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD…REACHING THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SSWWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS…SERN GA TO NRN FL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS TO SERN VA TODAY AND THROUGH DELMARVA/NJ THIS EVENING.

…SERN LA/MS…AL/GA/NRN FL TO CAROLINAS/SERN VA/SRN DELMARVA…
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENING OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT/STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE ERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SERN LA/MS INTO AL AT 12Z TODAY. IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT…STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SSWLY WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT THE RICH MOISTURE /PW UP TO 1.75 INCH/ SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE AFTERNOON.

AT 12Z TODAY…STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN AL TO SERN MS/LA…WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…30-50 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE 12Z LINE OF TSTMS PROGRESSING EWD AND POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL SC TO SRN GA AND ERN FL PANHANDLE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT SPREADING EWD ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY…THE INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS TO SERN VA SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT…INITIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT…AND THEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING. HERE TOO…LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

…TN AND OH VALLEYS…
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO 100-150 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA SPREADING NEWD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE OZARKS TO TN/OH VALLEYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT…WITH A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPING FROM KY/SRN IND INTO OH ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS GUSTS. WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF JUST A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER…IN ADDITION TO A LOW SEVERE WIND RISK…MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION…A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

…KS/OK/TX…
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND A N-S ORIENTED MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS KS…OK AND TX TODAY. SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES /RANGING FROM -22 TO -26 C/ WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION…THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS TX. WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 300-700 J PER KG/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE NEED TO INTRODUCE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME…BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

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