Skip to content

Mesoscale Discussion 314

April 7, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 314

mcd0314

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071932Z – 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD E-NE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS FAST MOVING CONVECTION. HOWEVER…A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY BETTER ORGANIZED STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION…SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS A SFC LOW NEAR LOUISVILLE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SW OHIO. DOWNSTREAM TEMPERATURES HAVE MODESTLY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE MID 50S…RESULTING IN ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG/. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO FAST STORM MOTION…AND COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/ POSSIBLY SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL OR BOWING STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL WSR88-D VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF A TORNADO WITH ANY BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND AFOREMENTIONED FAST STORM MOTION. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE AND WHILE A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME…TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR MORE ROBUST/ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: