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Apr 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 13, 2014

Apr 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VALID 131200Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS…SRN PLAINS…OZARKS…ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY…

…NRN OK/SE KS/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT…FIRST IN ERN KS AND THEN EXPANDING SSWWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NCNTRL OK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITA MTNS OF ERN OK. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MCS FORMATION DURING THE EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR WICHITA KS SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 21Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION…0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT IS FORECAST WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS SUPERCELLS ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUBSTANTIAL THAT NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT…A POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ANYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER TO THE EAST…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITA MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. ANY STORM THAT CAN INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY…COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS MORE WIDESPREAD FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.

…SRN OK/NORTH TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC…A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY…THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INITIATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NORTH TX FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO SMALL CLUSTERS…MOVING EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ARDMORE OK AND DALLAS TX AT 00Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. IN ADDITION…FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.

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