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Apr 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

April 13, 2014

Apr 13, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

day2otlk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES…

…SYNOPSIS…
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR VIA THE EVOLUTION OF A FULL LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH RIVER VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY…WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

…GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS…SOME STRONG/SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED MCS…SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS/AL TO TN VALLEY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DEPEND UPON EARLY DAY MCS PROSPECTS/ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

REGARDLESS…IN AREAS VOID OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/OVERTURNING…THE FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA A 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR/MOIST INFLUX VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS LIKELY THAT MIDDLE/SOME UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN ANTICIPATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE…WHICH MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACROSS MS/AL/TN. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL DETAILS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN MESOSCALE/EARLY DAY UNCERTAINTIES…THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY QUASI-FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW AND/OR WITH REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY TEND TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW…STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND RESIDUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS…SOME HAIL…AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL AND POTENTIALLY NEIGHBORING PARTS OF LA/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

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