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Apr 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

April 14, 2014

Apr 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES…

…LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES…
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS. AT THE SFC…A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MS AND INTO NRN LA. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THAT PARTS OF THE LINE MAY HOLD TOGETHER MAINTAINING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES…NEW CELL INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL MS EWD ACROSS SCNTRL AL. DURING THE EVENING…STORMS SHOULD AGAIN CONSOLIDATE INTO A NEARLY CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN MS…SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AT JACKSON MS AND TUSCALOOSA AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND RESULTANT SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 45 TO 55 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE DAY…A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER-ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS. CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OR ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE COULD HAVE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. IN ADDITION…A HAIL THREAT COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR PEAK INSTABILITY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AROUND 06Z.

…SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/WRN SC…
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY. AT THE SFC…SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS GA AND SC WITH THIS AIDING DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. BY 00Z/TUE…THE NAM HAS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM NEAR ATLANTA EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR THE SC-GA STATE-LINE WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECASTS SOUNDINGS…A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP. DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE FORECAST…WILL KEEP THE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT.

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